中国海洋经济绿色全要素生产率时空演化及影响因素分析

An Analysis of Spatio-temporalEvolution of Marine Economy Green Total Factor Productivity and Its Influencing Factorsin China

基于2003—2018年我国11个沿海省市(不含港澳台)的面板数据,使用DEA-Malmquist指数模型测算海洋经济绿色全要素生产率,并分析其时空演化特征。在此基础上,使用PVAR模型,分析海洋经济绿色全要素生产率发展的内在机制,并对其未来发展的影响因素进行预测。主要结论如下:(1)从海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的测算结果看,海洋经济绿色全要素生产率呈现波动增长的趋势,各沿海省市之间的发展差异正在逐步缩小;(2)从发展的内在机制来看,海洋技术进步、海洋经济与制度管理是提高海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的主要动力,海洋规模经济对海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的推动作用不明显;(3)从影响因素的预测来看,在未来发展的10年间,海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的增速会放缓,除受海洋经济发展模式的惯性影响之外,受技术进步的影响最大,海洋经济制度与管理次之,海洋规模经济最低。

Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces and cities(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2003 to 2018,the DEA-Malmquist index model is used to calculate the green total factor productivity of marine economy and analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics.On this basis,PVAR model is used to analyze the internal mechanism of the development of marine economy green total factor productivity,and predict the influencing factors of its future development.The research shows that judging from the calculation results of marine economy green total factor productivity,the marine economy green total factor productivity showed a fluctuating growth trend,and the development differences among the coastal provinces were gradually narrowing;that judging from the internal mechanism of the development of marine economy green total factor productivity,marine technology progress,marine economy and institutional management are the main driving forces to improve the marine economy green total factor productivity,and the role of marine scale economy in promoting the green total factor productivity of marine economy is not obvious;and that in the next 10 years of development,the growth rate of marine economy green total factor productivity will slow down.In addition to the inertia of marine economic development mode,the impact of technological progress is the largest,followed by the marine economic system and management,and the marine scale economy is the lowest.