高速公路路网交通量预测研究

Research on traffic volume prediction of expressway network

为了准确判定高速公路交通量,确保高速公路的出行,采用四阶段法,以延安-西安高速公路为研究对象,对延安-西安高速公路路网2020年、2025年、2030年的交通生成、交通分布、诱增交通及交通量分配值进行分析,结果表明,延安-西安高速公路路网2020年、2025年、2030年的交通量预测结果分别为13650辆/日、17962辆/日、22165辆/日,2025年较2020年增长率为31.7%,2030年较2025年增长率为23.4%。期望为陆高速公路路网布局规划提供科学依据。

In order to accurately determine the traffic volume of Expressway and ensure the trip of expressway,this paper uses four-stage method,taking Yan'an-Xi'an expressway as the research object,to analyze the traffic generation,traffic distribution,induced traffic and traffic volume distribution value of Yan'an-Xi'an expressway network in 2020,2025 and 2030.The results show that the traffic forecasting results of Yan'an-Xi'an expressway network in 2020,2025 and 2030 are 13650 vehicles/day,17962 vehicles/day and 22165 vehicles/day respectively.The growth rate in 2025 is 31.7%compared with 2020 and 23.4%compared with 2025.It is expected to provide scientific basis for road network layout planning of land expressway.