中国财政收支非线性调整特征研究

Nonlinear Adjustment of the Local Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure in China

文章运用线性自回归分布滞后模型和非线性自回归分布滞后模型研究了中国财政失衡的动态调整特征。实证研究表明:中国财政具有可持续性,1978-1993年,我国财政调整存在相互影响关系,满足"同步"假说;1994-2016年财政调整存在"以支定收"的单向因果关系,并且具有非对称调整特征,即当财政支出每上升1%,会引起财政收入上升3.974%,而财政支出每下降1%,则会引起财政收入下降5.721%。这种特征的形成可以从经济周期的非对称性、政府对待财政失衡的态度、纳税人对税收变化的敏感度等方面进行解释。

The paper explores the characteristics of the local fiscal adjustments in China, the nonlinear characteristics in particular, using the autoregressive distribution lag(ARDL) model and nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag(NARDL) model. The empirical study has found that China’s local finance is sustainable. In the past 1978-1993 years, China’s local fiscal adjustment has an interdependent relationship to satisfy the "synchronization" hypothesis. In the past 1994-2016 years, there is a one-way causal relationship between local fiscal revenue and expenditure - fiscal expenditure is determined by fiscal revenue. And it has the characteristics of asymmetric adjustmen, that is, when local fiscal expenditure rises by 1%, local fiscal revenue will increase by 3.974%. When the local fiscal expenditure drops by 1%, the local fiscal revenue will drop by 5.721%. The formation of such a feature can be explained by the asymmetry of the economic cycle, the government’s attitude towards fiscal imbalances, and the different sensitivity of taxpayers to tax changes and so on.