基于文本数据分析的上市公司业绩归因研究

Research on performance attribution of listed companies based on text data analysis

上市公司对外披露的信息中有大量文本数据,其中公开的业绩预告就包括以文本形式呈现的业绩归因信息,基于文本数据分析,能够挖掘业绩归因对业绩预告类型的影响。选取2016-2018年700多家A股上市公司的业绩预告数据,通过内容分析法从文本数据中提取业绩归因高频词,构建业绩归因指标,并基于韦纳归因理论进行分类。运用列联分析法分析业绩归因与业绩预告类型的相关性,借助TOPSIS分析面板数据得到业绩归因与业绩预告类型之间的关联程度。分析结果不仅可以为上市公司经营决策提供借鉴,也能为审计机构、监管部门及投资者提供参考。

There is a large amount of text data in the information disclosed by listed companies,among which the public performance forecast includes the performance attribution information presented in the form of text.Based on text data analysis,the impact of performance attribution on the type of performance forecast can be excavated.Firstly,the prediction performance data of more than 700 A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2018 are selecte;the high-frequency words of performance attribution are extracted from text data by content analysis method;the performance attribution indicators was constructed and classified based on Weiner attribution theory.Then the correlation between performance attribution and performance forecast type is analyzed by using contingency analysis method.Finally,using TOPSIS to analyze panel data,the correlation degree between performance attribution and performance forecast type is obtained.The analysis results can not only provide reference for listed companies′business decision-making,but also provide reference for auditing institutions,regulatory authorities and investors.