气候变化对雄安新区城市建设的影响及应对策略

Influence of climate change on urban constructions in Xiong’an New Area and countermeasures

利用全国近50年气象资料(雄安1974年以来的完整资料),研究分析了全国尤其是雄安近几十年来的气候变化和气候生态特征。雄安属暖温带半湿润季风气候,气候背景与北京、天津类似。近几十年来,气温、降水等气象要素的变化趋势明显但幅度较弱,年平均气温变化趋势为平均每10年升高0.2℃,高温日数平均每10年增加0.8 d,暴雨日数呈减少趋势,上述要素的变化幅度虽低于全国及周边城市,但均显示出了气候变化对雄安的影响,且极端天气事件也呈增加的趋势,如强降雨重现期缩短,极端强降雨量明显增大等,这与IPCC(联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会)的报告和中国大部地区趋势一致。结合灾害历史资料分析和气候模式预测,指出在全球气候变暖背景下,雄安新区在发展中将面临气候变化背景下增加的气象灾害和气候风险,进而给出了相关城市建设的建议。

Based on the meteorological data in China in the last 50 years(including the complete data for Xiong’an New Area since 1974),this paper studies and analyzes the climate change and the climate ecological characteristics in China,especially,in Xiong’an in recent decades.Xiong’an is in the zone of the warm temperate semi-humid monsoon climate,with a climate background similar to that of Beijing and Tianjin.In recent decades,temperature,precipitation and other meteorological elements take an obvious change trend but with a weak amplitude,the annual average temperature is increased by 0.2℃ per decade,and the number of hot days is increased by 0.8 days per decade,the number of heavy rain days shows a trend of decrease,the change ranges of elements are all lower than those in China as a whole and in the surrounding cities,as the results of the effects of climate change on Xiong’an.The number of extreme weather events is also increased,such as the heavy rainfall return period is shortened,the number of extreme strong rainfalls is increased obviously and so on.This is as shown in the IPCC’s report,and the trend in most regions in China.Based on the analysis of the disaster historical data and the climate model prediction,it is pointed out that under the background of the global warming,Xiong’an will face increasing meteorological disasters and climate risks caused by the climate change in its development,and some suggestions are made.