外部市场需求冲击与企业工资调整

External Market Demand Shock and Firm Wage Adjustment

本文尝试从理论和实证两方面验证外需变化对企业工资的实际影响。本文构建包含外部市场需求冲击的理论框架诠释了企业外需变化会直接影响企业盈利能力,引发工资调整。接着,本文采用全球200个国家(地区)3800种的HS6分位产品进口数据,匹配中国企业的出口信息,测算了每个企业基于目的国—产品的国际外需变化,结合2010—2013年中国海关和工业企业库进行实证。结果发现:控制企业外部供给和内需冲击等因素后,外部需求冲击对我国企业工资有显著的正向影响,10%的外需提高能使企业工资上调0.173%;企业外部市场暴露加强了外需冲击对企业工资的作用;外资企业及我国港澳台地区企业、低技术行业内企业工资遇到外需冲击调整幅度较大。本文研究有助于从微观企业视角厘清国际外需变化对我国劳动力市场的影响,对逆全球化下保证劳动力收入有着重要的政策含义。

The paper verified the theoretical and empirical effect of external demand shock on firm wage.Moreover,this paper proposed a heterogeneous firm model that included an external demand shock,and studied firms'wage adjustment under external demand through a profit channel.By using trade flows covering 200 export destinations and 3800 HS6-level products,as well as export information of Chinese export firms,this paper calculated international firm-level demand shock.An empirical analysis was conducted by using Chinese custom data that matched the firm production data from 2010 to 2013.The finding of this study reveals that after controlling external supply and internal demand shocks,firms'external demand shock has a significant positive influence on the wage at firm-level,that is,a 10% increase in external demand shock causes a 0.173%increase in wage.Furthermore,firms'international market exposure has a vital influence on this relationship.The effect is stronger for foreign firms and firms in low-technology industries.This paper thus aids in understanding the impact of external demand on the Chinese labor market,and suggests important policy implications for maintaining labor income under the anti-globalization movement.