资本账户开放、跨境资本流动与金融稳定的相关性研究

Research on the Correlation Between Capital Account Opening, Cross-border Capital Flow and Financial Stability

在经济的“新常态”下,资本账户开放与金融稳定直接关系到经济发展、社会稳定和国家经济主权的安危。使用1986—2016年70个国家和地区的数据,检验了资本账户开放、跨境资本流动与金融稳定的相关性。研究发现:发达国家资本账户开放易引发国际投机资本短期投资带来的金融风险;新兴国家资本账户开放导致其银行不良贷款率提高,资本市场波动较大;不发达的国家资本账户开放弊大于利。政策建议是:我国可以适当加大资本账户开放的力度,渐进、稳步推进资本账户开放,但应防范资本账户开放后,外资涌入对金融机构和市场的冲击,加强监控,防范投机资本。同时,应明确发展实体经济是根本,让金融回归支持实体经济的本源。

Under The new normal of China’s economy,capital account opening and financial stability are directly related to economic development,social stability and the security of national economic sovereignty.Using data from 71 countries and regions from 1986 to 2016,this paper examines the correlation between capital account openness,cross-border capital flows and financial stability.It is found that the opening of capital account in developed countries is likely to lead to financial risks caused by shortterm investment in international speculative capital.The capital account opening of emerging countries leads to the increase of the non-performing loan ratio of their Banks,and the capital market is highly volatile.Capital account opening in underdeveloped countries does more harm than good.The policy Suggestions are as follows:China can appropriately increase the opening of the capital account,gradually and steadily promote the opening of the capital account,but should guard against the impact of the influx of foreign capital on financial institutions and the market after the opening of the capital account,strengthen supervision,and prevent speculative capital.At the same time,we should make it clear that the development of the real economy is fundamental and return the financial sector to its source of support for the development of the real economy.