宏观审慎监管、货币政策和经济效果评价

Macro-prudential Supervision, Monetary Policy and Economic Effect Evaluation

在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型下,对我国货币政策和宏观审慎监管“双支柱”的互动作用做出评价。研究表明:在正向利率冲击下,相较于单一货币政策,模型加入最低资本充足率监管有利于减少经济波动和促进金融稳定,这一政策效果随着表外资产进入宏观审慎的监管范围而更加显著;将货币政策改为数量规则后,结论基本不变。总的来看,“双支柱”政策对降低经济波动和抑制金融风险具有明显效果,在完全实现利率市场化之前,数量型货币政策在我国仍具有积极作用。

Under the framework of DSGE model,this paper evaluates the interaction between the“two pillars”of China’s monetary policy and macro-prudential supervision.The results show that under the impact of positive interest rate,compared with the single monetary policy,adding the minimum capital adequacy rate regulation to the model is beneficial to reduce economic fluctuations and promote financial stability.This policy effect is more significant as the off-balance-sheet assets enter the scope of macro-prudential supervision.After changing the monetary policy into quantitative rules,the conclusion remains basically unchanged.Generally speaking,the“two pillars”policy has obvious effect on reducing economic fluctuation and suppressing financial risks.Quantitative monetary policy still plays an active role in China before the interest rate liberalization is fully realized.