关税传导、房价与市场消费价格——基于微观价格视角的研究

Tariff Transmission, Housing Prices and Market Consumer Prices: An Analysis Based on the Micro Price Perspective

现有文献主要是从宏观总量角度来研究房价和消费市场的关系,但由于理论和数据的客观欠缺,它们并没有深入地从微观价格角度具体考察房价对消费市场的实际影响。鉴于此,文章以市场价格为核心联系了房价、消费市场与贸易开放,首次基于关税传导效应的理论基础,分析了房价上涨对贸易开放作用的阻碍性效果,并利用我国2001-2012年136个地级城市75种商品的零售价格、进口关税信息,以及每个城市的年度房价,从商品的实际市场价格角度检验了房地产价格对关税传导效果发挥的实际影响。研究结果表明:(1)商品进口关税的下降可以显著影响国内不同市场消费品的最终销售价格;但是,这种关税传导效应存在显著的城市差异性,表现为房价越高的地区,关税传导效应相对越弱。(2)非参数估计等稳健性检验进一步发现,房价较高的地区,由于居民商品需求弹性较低,实际价格受关税影响较小,因此关税传导机制受到阻碍,即房价上涨会抵消关税下降对国内消费市场的影响。(3)相对于一般消费品和异质商品,房价对生活必需品和同质商品的关税传导的阻碍作用较小。文章首次从关税传导角度,以商品最终市场价格为基准,填补了房地产价格对国内消费市场影响的研究空白。

Since the reform and opening up,China has greatly reduced tariff and non-tariff barriers to facilitate massive imports of foreign goods,enriching the varieties of domestic goods,while strengthening the market competition for congener commodity at home.However,the relationship between tariff reduction and domestic consumer market pricing is still a blank due to the lack of micro retail prices at present.In addition,the rapid development of real estate has become a hot topic in China,and its impact on the domestic economy is also the focus of the policy-maker,but due to the lack of theory and data,little literature deeply analyzes how housing prices influence the consumer market from the perspective of micro prices.So will the competitive function of tariff reduction on domestic consumer prices be affected by local housing prices?Is there a difference between commodities?This paper explains how the rise of housing prices affects the final pricing of domestic goods through the markup of retailers during trade openness.Empirically,it estimates the inhibition of housing prices on tariff transmission based on 75 kinds of consumer goods in 136 cities from 2001 to 2012 by matching retail price database from China Price Information Center and custom data as well as prefecture-level housing prices.In order to prove the robustness of the basic results,this paper examines the relationship between tariffs,housing prices and domestic consumer prices through non-parametric estimation,sample re-selection,regional grouping and market liberalization grouping.It comes to the following conclusions:Firstly,import tariffs will lower domestic retail prices via competition,but retailers with higher pricing ability in regions with higher housing prices will reduce the price less because demand elasticity is relatively lower,which indicates that the rise of housing prices will block the tariff transmission mechanism.Secondly,the results of non-parametric estimation show that:the tariff transmission in regions with high housing prices is always lower than that in regions with low housing prices,and with the continuous decline of tariffs,the marginal effect of rising housing prices on tariff transmission is weakened.Besides,trade openness contributes to the substantial decline of domestic commodity prices even at the same housing price.Thirdly,compared with the necessities of life and homogeneous commodities,the barrier effect of rising house prices on the tariff transmission of general consumer goods and heterogeneous goods is more significant.In short,this paper mainly expands the existing research from the following three aspects:Firstly,by matching the data of import tariffs,market retail prices and urban housing prices,the microscopic information at the level of“commodity-tariff-retail price”is finally obtained to accurately describe the tariff transmission process and detailed mechanism for the first time.Secondly,based on the perspective of trade openness,this paper directly explores the impact of housing prices on consumer commodity prices,and analyzes the influence mechanism between housing prices and consumer commodity prices from a micro perspective.Thirdly,based on housing prices,this paper accurately and intuitively studies the differential impact of tariff reduction on domestic retail prices,which enriches the research on the urban heterogeneity of trade openness on the domestic consumer market.