美国亚太联盟体系会走向瓦解吗

Will the U.S. Alliance System in Asia-Pacific Collapse?

第二次世界大战以后,美国长期维持着在西太平洋地区的主导权,亚太联盟体系是美国维持这一优势的关键。2008年国际金融危机以来,中国经济发展和军事现代化取得了举世瞩目的成就,其结果是中国与美国亚太联盟体系之间的张力逐渐增加,并已成为中国必须面对的难题。从美国的亚太盟友、亚太地区的美军驻军数量、美国在亚太联盟体系内的主导权和亚太地区的产业链四个重要指标来看,美国亚太联盟体系在历史上是逐渐衰落的,其松动或瓦解的原因主要有战争方式、战略妥协、国内政治和威胁消失四种。未来美国亚太联盟体系将会部分瓦解,根本原因有三:其一,中国的持续快速发展将重塑西太平洋地区的地缘政治格局,并塑造周边国家的行为模式。其二,相对衰落也会使得美国维系亚太联盟体系的意愿下降,并损害其国家声誉。其三,美国亚太联盟体系的制度设计存在缺陷,双边联盟关系无法避免走向部分瓦解的命运。在5—10年内,美国更倾向于选择强化联盟关系。在未来10—30年,中国进一步发展和个别美国亚太盟友的民族主义可能导致美国亚太联盟体系部分瓦解。理解未来美国亚太联盟体系松动或瓦解的历史逻辑和现实逻辑,对于中国准确把握世界大势、积极应对西太平洋地区的挑战具有重要的战略意义。

The United States has preserved its primacy in the Western Pacific since the Second World War.The alliance system in Asia-Pacific region is the key for the U.S.to maintain its dominant position.After the world financial crisis in 2008,China made tremendous achievements in economic development and military modernization.As a result,the tension between China and the U.S.alliance system in Asia-Pacific has gradually intensified,which China must face today.In terms of four indexes which are the U.S.allies,the U.S.troops'deployment,the U.S.dominance position in the alliance system,and the industry chain,the U.S.alliance system in Asia-Pacific has gradually declined.The main reasons for alliance dissolution are warfare,strategic compromise,domestic politics and threat disappearance.The author argues that the U.S.Asia-Pacific alliance system will partially collapse in the future.There are three fundamental reasons:First,China's sustained rapid development will reshape the geopolitics of the Western Pacific and shape the behavior patterns of neighboring countries.Second,the relative decline will reduce the willingness of the United States to maintain the alliance system which will erode its reputation in Asia-Pacific.Third,the institutional design of the U.S.alliance system in Asia-Pacific is flawed,and the bilateral alliance relationship cannot avoid the fate of partial collapse.In five to ten years,the United States is inclined to strengthen alliance relations.In the next 10-30 years,China's continued rise and the nationalism of some U.S.allies in Asia-Pacific will lead to partial collapse of the U.S.alliance system in Asia-Pacific.Understanding the logic of alliance collapse is crucial for China to respond to the challenges in the Western Pacific.