中国推进“一带一路”倡议的认知风险及其防范

Perceived Risks to China in the Process of the BRI Construction and Its Countermeasures

“一带一路”倡议推行六年来,取得了令人瞩目的早期成果,同时也遭遇了来自各个方面的挑战,如何有效防范和妥善应对倡议实施过程中可能遭遇的风险成为“一带一路”相关研究的重要内容。作为倡议的推动者,中国的战略认知水平及行动能力,包括能否制定得当的目标预期、采取与目的相适应的行动策略、正确判断倡议推进过程中外部力量的反馈、客观评估倡议的阶段性实施效果,将决定“一带一路”倡议现阶段以及未来较长一段时间的实施效果。“一带一路”倡议框架下中国与其他参与方的互动符合多方在不完全信息下进行的重复非合作博弈特征。作者以此为分析框架,对中国在“一带一路”倡议实施过程中的判断和行为进行系统性研究,从实施主体的预期与目标、实施主体采取的手段与策略、实施主体对反馈信号的阅读与判断三个环节,对中国引领“一带一路”倡议的主观认识与判断方面的可能风险进行分析,并对风险的整体水平做出评估。

With an impressive early harvest,the BRI,the most significant cooperation proposal initiated by Chinese government six years ago,has not only made remarkable achievements,but also has met some tough challenges.How to effectively cope and appropriately respond to the potential risks during the implementation of the BRI has become the focus of the BRI related researches and studies.As the key advocator and promoter of the initiative,China plays the most important role.China's strategic thinking and implementation capacity will determine the future of the BRI.China should estimate proper expectations,adopt suitable tactics,respond to the feedback from other players correctly,and assess phase achievements objectively.The multiple engagements between China and other players in the BRI framework are a kind of multi-player repeated and non-cooperative game in imperfect information model.By drawing on the Game Theory,the analytical framework of this essay investigated China's thinking and action patterns in three major strategic implementation segments including achievements expectation setup,tactics and policies implementing,and the receiving and understanding of feedback information.With the help of this analytical framework,the research analyzed the risks to China in the process of the BRI construction,particularly the potential subjective risks and mistakes.Last but not least,the research assessed the severity of those potential risks.