战略选边与战略平衡:莫迪政府对华外交战略及演变

Taking Sides or Keeping Balance:Evolving China Policy of Modi Administration

莫迪2014年就任印度总理以来,其对华政策历经多次调整。在初期短暂试探对华合作之后,莫迪政府处理对华经济和政治关系日益强调竞争的一面,中印关系开始承受考验。进入2016年以来,莫迪政府对华冲突政策的领域不断扩大,双边关系下降的速度加快,到洞朗对峙时期达到低谷。2018年以后,特朗普政府的全球贸易保护主义政策开始冲击印美关系,美国对印度实际执行的是安全与经贸议题脱钩的政策。面对特朗普外交对国际环境稳定性带来的巨大冲击,莫迪政府很难在对美经贸受制的情况仍全力投入印美安全合作,此时印度有动力恢复在中美之间的战略平衡。为此莫迪政府不断释放对华缓和信号,中印关系出现新的发展态势。莫迪第二任期内,中印领导人继续通过非正式会晤加强战略沟通,中印高层之间的战略协调增多,有理由相信中印关系总体上将延续当前发展势头。但是,值得中国重视的是,历届印度政府的对华政策都在一定程度上反映了印方所持有的“中国威胁论”思想,莫迪政府对华政策尤其如此,因此莫迪的大国战略平衡战略并不是印度发展对中美的等距离外交,而是更多地表现为深化印美战略合作同时保持与包括中国在内的其他大国关系的稳定,中印关系的平稳健康发展仍面临很大挑战。

This paper notices that Modi government’s China policy evolves with its relations with other major powers.After initial attempts in seeking a cooperative China policy,Modi government began to stress economic and political competitions and the issues of conflicts against China expanded.The worsening trend of bilateral relations hit historical lows after the Doklam Standoff in mid-2017..His China policy was partly encouraged by the improvement of India-U.S.strategic relations.After 2018,the protectionism measures initiated by Trump administration began to hit India and Mr.Trump was actually implementing an India policy delinking economic policies from strategic cooperation.In front of the impact on strategic stability brought by Trump diplomacy,Modi government decided to keep strategic balance among major powers,in particular the balance between U.S.and China.Hence positive signals were released to his Chinese counterpart and the informal summit mechanism,which had brought a new trend of India-China relations.Solid measures were taken by Modi government to seek rapprochement with China.Due to the increasing strategic communications at the highest level of state leaders,the relations between India and China was improved significantly and the trend will be most likely kept during Modi’s second term.