能源强度、交通压力与雾霾污染——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证

Energy Intensity, Traffic Pressure and Haze Pollution: An Empirical Study Based on Static and Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

采用2003~2014年中国30省区面板数据,运用空间计量经济学方法,使用地理距离权重矩阵,建立静态与动态空间面板计量经济学模型,分析城镇化进程中能源强度、交通压力和能源结构等对雾霾污染的影响。研究发现,雾霾污染存在正的空间相关性,局部地区雾霾污染存在集聚现象;空间和时间固定效应的空间杜宾模型最优;静态和动态空间面板模型都显示雾霾污染存在空间外溢效应,中国经济发展与雾霾污染之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线,能源结构、交通压力与雾霾污染呈同方向变动,能源强度的溢出效应为负;动态空间面板模型比静态更为合适,估计结果更为准确,揭示了行为习惯等遗漏因素对雾霾的影响也很重要。

This paper investigates the effects of energy intensity, traffic pressure, and energy structure on hazy pollution in the process of urbanization based on the static and dynamic spatial panel econometric model by using the panel data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2003 to 2014, by using the spatial econometric method and geographic distance weight matrix, and by establishing static and dynamic spatial panel econometric models. It is found that haze pollution is of spatial correlation and there exists agglomeration in some areas. The spatial Durbin model with space and time fixed effects is the best of all. Both static and dynamic spatial panel models show that haze pollution has spatial spillover effects. There exists an environment Kuznets Curve between economic growth and haze pollution. Energy structure, traffic pressure, and haze pollution changes in the same direction. The spillover effect of is energy intensity negative. The dynamic spatial panel model is more appropriate and accurate than the static model, which reveals that the omission factors such as behavior custom also have a very important influence on haze pollution.