“一带一路”沿线中国重点省市出口贸易潜力及其影响因素研究——基于异质性随机前沿模型的实证分析

Export Potential and Influencing Factors of Key Provinces along the Belt and Road: An Empirical Analysis Based on Heterogeneous Stochastic Frontier Model

本文以“一带一路”沿线重点省市对沿线国家的出口贸易效率与贸易潜力为研究对象,基于2003—2015年的面板数据,运用异质性随机前沿模型重点评估了交通基础设施、政府干预度及环境约束要素等非效率变量对“一带一路”沿线重点省市出口贸易的影响,进而测算出沿线重点省市的出口贸易效率,分析了“一带一路”沿线重点省市的出口贸易潜力。研究结果表明:交通基础设施、政府干预度以及环境约束要素对出口贸易效率及其波动性都有显著影响。其中,环境约束要素的影响最大;当前“一带一路”沿线重点省市出口贸易效率较低;区域间发展差距较大,今后仍然具有较大的出口贸易潜力提升空间。

Taking the export trade efficiency and trade potential between China’s key provinces along the Belt and Road and countries along the route as the research object,this paper analyzes the impact of transportation infrastructure,government intervention and environmental constraints on the export trade of key provinces along the Belt and Road from 2003 to 2015 with a heterogeneity stochastic frontier model,and further measures the export trade efficiency.The results of the study show that transportation infrastructure,government intervention and environmental factors have a significant impact on the efficiency and volatility of export trade.Among these,environmental factors rank the top in terms of the impact.Currently,China’s key provinces along the Belt and Road suffer from a low average export trade efficiency,which is about 27.1%.And there is a large gap between the regions,and there is still considerable room for export trade growth in the future.