光伏发电功率预测方法研究

Research on Statistical Methods of Prediction for Photovoltaic Power Generation

分析了影响光伏发电的主要因子,建立了基于BP神经网络的功率预测模型,并对模型进行了测试。利用相似日的历史输出功率值、最高温度、最低温度及预测日的最高温度、最低温度对输出功率进行直接预测。结果表明,该预测模型具有比较高的精度,可应用到实际生活中。

The article analyzed the main factors of influencing on the output power,and established the model of generation forecasting based on BP neural network,finally,previous data were used to test this model.By using historical output power value,the highest temperature and the lowest temperature of the similar day,temperature of the predicted day,and then the output power of generating station can be predicted directly.The results show that the model has high precision,it can used in real life.