中国暴雨洪涝预报方法的研究进展

Research progress in forecasting methods of rainstorm and flood disaster in China

针对中国暴雨洪涝灾害频发的现象及其带来的严重影响和损失,结合我国有关暴雨洪涝灾害预报方法的研究进展,对洪涝灾害预报方法的研究进行了总结与回顾。随着卫星遥感、地理信息系统等技术的不断发展与完善,暴雨洪涝灾害预报的方法由简单的数值统计方法发展成为水文模型预报法,从简易的经验模型、水动力学模型,到集总式水文模型,再发展到分布式水文模型;通过水文模型预报方法,结合气象水文耦合预报实现实时洪水预报并进行动态评估,不断提高洪水预报的精度和预见期,为暴雨洪涝灾害预报提供可靠数据和决策依据。最后,在总结归纳基础上,指出了当前暴雨洪涝灾害预报方法的不足,提出了不断提高水文观测技术、加强分布式水文模型与地理信息系统的耦合、加强与气象模型的耦合等方面的研究是进一步提高暴雨洪涝灾害预报准确率的主要发展方向。

In view of the frequent occurrence of rainstorm and flood disasters in China and the serious impacts and losses brought by them,this paper summarizes and reviews the research of flood forecasting methods based on the research progress of rainstorm and flood forecasting methods in China.With the continuous development and improvement of satellite remote sensing,geographic information system and other technology,the method of rainstorm flood disaster prediction has been developed from a simple numerical analysis method to a hydrological model prediction method,from simple empirical models,hydrodynamic models,to lumped hydrological models,and then to distributed hydrological models.Through applying the hydrological model prediction method,combined with meteorological and hydrological coupled prediction,we have achieved real-time flood forecasting and dynamic assessment,are continuously improving the accuracy and forecast period of flood forecasting,and have provided reliable data and decision-making basis for storm flood forecasting.Finally,this paper puts forward the shortcomings of current forecasting methods of rainstorm and flood disaster,and discusses that it is necessary to improve the hydrological observation technology,strengthen the coupling between distributed hydrological model and GIS,and strengthen the coupling between distributed hydrological model and meteorological model.