我国西北暴雨的研究进展

A review on rainstorm research in northwest China

西北地区地形地貌非常复杂,暴雨作用有利有弊,为了趋利避害,对近40 a西北暴雨主要进展进行了回顾、梳理,其内容包括暴雨的气候特征、大尺度环流形势与水汽输送、暴雨中尺度系统的发生发展及成因、地形及下垫面作用以及暴雨的预报方法等,以期为进一步开展西北暴雨研究、提高暴雨预报准确率和防灾减灾能力提供参考。指出围绕暴雨的监测预警与预报,需要关注基于强度的暴雨定义研究,短历时暴雨中尺度系统生消机理研究,高、中、低纬环流系统相互作用及与暴雨有密切联系的低空急流的发生发展机制研究等。从气候和气候变化的角度,针对华西秋雨背景下长历时暴雨的发展演变、东亚夏季风对暴雨的影响、变暖背景下极端暴雨事件预测及其影响预估研究等也值得关注。

The topography and geomorphology of the northwestern region is very complicated.The rainstorms have both advantages and disadvantages.In order to make use of the advantages and avoid the disadvantages,the main progress of the torrential rain in the northwest of nearly 40 years was reviewed.The contents include the climatological characteristics of rainstorms,large-scale circulation and water vapor transport,the occurrence and development of mesoscale systems,the effects of topography and underlying surface on heavy rainfall,and forecasting methods of rainstorms.All these are intended to provide references for further research on Northwest rainstorms,and improve the accuracy of storm forecasting and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.It is pointed out that monitoring and forecasting of rainstorms need to pay attention to the definitions of intensity-based storms,the study of the mechanism of the short-lived rainstorm mesoscale systems on the interaction of high-medium-low-latitude circulation systems,and the occurrence of low-level jets closely related to rainstorms.It is important to study the evolution of long-lived heavy rainfall events in the background of autumn rain in West China and the impact of East Asian summer monsoon on rainstorm from the perspective of climate and climate change.The prediction of extreme torrential rain events and its impact assessment under global warming background are also worthy of attention.