1949年以来我国台风暴雨及其预报研究回顾与展望

An overview of advances in typhoon rainfall and its forecasting researches in China during the past 70 years and future prospects

对1949年以来影响我国的台风暴雨及其预报研究的进展,从台风暴雨形成机理、专题研究、预报研究和研究新动向等四方面进行回顾总结。首先,从环境场、下垫面和内部条件三个角度对台风暴雨形成机理进行简要回顾,并从“75.8”特大暴雨、“莫拉克”极端暴雨、远距离暴雨、台风暴雨的诊断分析和气候特征等五个角度做了专题回顾。同时,简要回顾了台风暴雨预报研究进展,并就台风暴雨研究新动向给出了在云微物理、极端降水和预报方法三个方向上的初步判断。在此基础上,给出了小结与展望。

This paper reviews the progress of typhoon rainfall and its forecasting researches in China since 1949 from the four perspectives,i.e.,the typhoon rainstorm formation mechanisms,typhoon rainstorm special topics,typhoon rainstorm forecasting researches and active fields of typhoon rainfall researches.Firstly,a brief review of the formation mechanism of typhoon rainstorm is conducted including environmental conditions,underlying surface conditions and internal conditions,especially,the special topics review is performed on“75.8”extreme rainstorm in Henan,“Morakot”extreme rainstorm,remote typhoon rainstorm,the diagnostic analyses and climate characteristics of typhoon rainstorm.Meanwhile,the research advances in typhoon rainfall forecast is reviewed briefly,and the active fields such as cloud microphysics,extreme precipitation and forecasting methods have been preliminarily provided for typhoon rainstorm research.Accordingly,a summary and outlook are given in the last section.