基于经济发展水平和产业转移视角的碳强度国别对比研究

International comparison of carbon intensity from the perspective of economic development levels and industrial transfers

为了合理界定全球碳排放责任,本文选取了美国、加拿大、英国、德国、法国、意大利、日本等7个主要工业化发达国家和中国、印度、南非、墨西哥、巴西等5个新兴经济体国家,运用回归方程等方法,描述了上述国家碳强度随经济增长的变化趋势,比较了相同经济发展水平下碳强度的国别差异,并分析了四次国际产业转移前后相关国家碳强度的变化。研究发现,发达国家和新兴经济体国家的碳强度随着经济水平增长均出现下降的趋势。相比发达国家,新兴经济体国家在较低的人均GDP水平达到了碳强度峰值,且其峰值碳强度大小总体来说低于发达国家。在相同的经济发展水平下,发达国家的碳强度总体高于新兴经济体国家。在国际产业转移的背景下,产业转出国的碳强度大多有所下降,承接国的碳强度整体有所上升。研究结果可以为国际碳排放权分配提供新的视角。

With the accelerated progress of global industrial transfers and industrialization of developing countries,global carbon emissions are rising rapidly.To depict the contribution of countries to global carbon emissions,this study selected seven major industrialized countries(the United States,Canada,the United Kingdom,Germany,France,Italy,Japan)and five emerging economies(China,India,Mexico,Brazil,South Africa),and used regression analysis to describe the changing trends of carbon intensity of these countries along with economic development,compare the carbon intensities of different countries at the same level of economic development,and analyze carbon intensity changes of relevant countries during different rounds of international industrial transfers.Our study found that with economic growth the carbon intensities of major industrialized countries showed a general downward trend after initial increase.Under low economic development level,the carbon intensity distributions of emerging economies were relatively discrete.However,with the improvement of economic development level,the carbon intensities of these countries still present a general trend of decline.At the same economic development level,the mean carbon intensity level of industrialized countries is higher than that of emerging economies.Under the background of international industry transfers,the carbon intensities of industries transferred abroad have mostly decreased,while those of receiving countries have increased as a whole.The results of this study can provide scientific basis for the allocation of carbon emission rights and expand a new perspective for global climate change mitigation research.