中国经济发展方式的时空演变特征及其环境效应

Transformation of China’s economic development pattern and its environmental effects

改革开放40多年来,中国区域经济发展取得重大成就,但出口导向型的粗放式发展模式也导致一些严重的生态环境问题。为了实现可持续发展,中国加速推进经济发展方式转变的步伐。在此背景下,本文从区域发展视角解读发展方式转变的内涵,采用2005-2016年省域面板数据系统剖析中国经济发展方式时空演变特征及其环境效应。研究结果显示:①2005年以来,中国经济发展方式转型总体可分为平稳转变、转变停滞、加速转变3个阶段;②2005-2016年,东部各省经济发展方式转变取得显著成效,西部多数省份发展方式转变的效果并不明显,省际差异呈扩大态势;③经济发展方式转变对单位GDP能耗、固体废弃物产生量、二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量、烟(粉)尘排放量等环境因素的影响显著,经济发展方式指数每上升1%,其各类要素分别下降2.710%,5.348%、8.403%、7.407%和14.925%;而经济发展方式指数对单位GDP氮氧化物排放量、电力消费量的影响甚微。实现可持续发展是控制工业污染物排放的重要手段。

Over the past 40 years,the continuous rapid economic growth in China has led to some serious sustainable development problems,due to the export-oriented development pattern.In order to achieve sustained,stable,and healthy development of the economy,China has accelerated the transformation of economic development pattern.Under this background,this study examined the spatiotemporal structure of transformation of economic development pattern in China and its environmental effects by improving the index of growth model(IGM)indicator system,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and a spatial econometric model.The findings are as follows:(1)The transformation of China’s economic development pattern has achieved remarkable results,with IGM increasing from 0.540 to 0.691.However,this transformation has gone through great fluctuations since 2005,which can be divided into three stages smooth transformation stage,stagnation stage,and accelerated transformation stage.(2)In 2005-2014,most provinces in eastern China attained significant achievements in the transformation of economic development pattern,while the transformation in most provinces of western China were relatively slow.As a result,the spatial differences between provincial IGM kept expanding.(3)The transformation of economic development pattern has positive environmental effects,with significant reduce in energy consumption per unit of GDP,industrial solid wastes produced per unit of GDP,and waste water discharged per unit of GDP.But it has no obvious correlation with the nitrogen oxides emissions per GDP and the consumption of electricity.