全球和地方力量对中国城市制造业增长的影响

Global and local factors of city growth in China based on the change in the manufacturing sector

企业动态是中国制造业空间重构的微观基础。采用中国制造业企业数据,根据新企业成立和就业净增长的关系,把中国城市划分为创业型、旋转门型、惯例型和缓增型4类增长模式,描述其在2003—2008年和2008—2013年的时空变化。发现受全球金融危机影响,东部外向型制造业核心区的城市新企业成立不足,现有企业增长乏力,制造业就业增长率下降,由惯例型转变为缓增型;在国内市场潜力不断提高的背景下,东部的相对欠发达地区和中部地区的城市持续吸引了大量新企业成立,并推动制造业就业快速增长,由旋转门型转变为创业型。论文建立“全球力量和地方力量”的分析框架,采用多项Logit模型揭示全球力量和地方力量对中国城市制造业增长模式在2个时期的不同影响。研究发现:全球力量中的出口导向和地方力量中的集聚经济对中国城市制造业增长的影响经历了从向心力到离心力的转变;全球力量中的出口导向和地方力量中的小企业比重和产业结构的影响此消彼长,体现了“全球-地方”联系。

As a foundation of spatial restructuring of industries,firm dynamics have triggered decades of research into entrepreneurship and its relation to regional growth since the 1980s.According to new firm formation and employment growth,the concept of"growth regime"was applied to classify cities into four types,namely,entrepreneurial,revolving door,routinized,and downsizing.This article describes the changing geography of city growth regimes in China in 2003-2008 and 2008-2013 based on firm-level data in the manufacturing sector in order to explore the new round of spatial dynamics in the 21st century.Two major paths of transition in growth regimes are identified.First,cities in several manufacturing bases of East China,whose export-oriented manufacturing activities were severely affected by the 2008 global financial crisis,fell from routinized to downsizing regime owing to low rate of new firm formation,slacked growth of existing firms,and declining employment growth in the manufacturing sector.Second,cities in the central region and the relatively underdeveloped part of East China,which were better positioned to attract new firms because of the rising domestic market potential,turned from revolving door to entrepreneurial regime due to high rate of employment growth brought by new firms.Furthermore,multinomial Logit models were used to test the effects of global and local factors of city growth regimes in the two periods,which transcends the exclusive focus on local conditions in existing research.The effect of export orientation at the global scale and agglomeration economies at the local scale changed from centripetal forces in 2003-2008 to centrifugal forces in 2008-2013.The falling influence of export orientation and the rising power of small firms and industrial structure reflect the changing global-local nexus.