中美商品贸易格局及网络特征演变

Evolution of Sino-US product trade patterns and network characteristics

中美作为世界上最大的2个经济体,中美贸易格局及其发展演化对全球经济的发展具有深刻的影响,然而,中美贸易格局特征以及贸易产品网络地位与演变当前还没有得到充分揭示。因此,论文基于联合国商品贸易数据,采用描述性统计分析和社会网络分析方法,对2001—2017年中美两国的贸易发展历程、产品结构、产品贸易网络进行分析研究。研究发现:①在贸易联系方面,2001—2017年中美双边进出口贸易额不断上升,贸易联系不断增强。②出口产品结构方面,中国对美国的出口产品类型主要是机械设备、纺织服装等产品,产品结构没有发生大的改变;美国对中国的出口产品类型主是机械设备、运输设备、植物产品和化工产品,近年来机电产品占比有所下降,运输设备产品比例上升。③主要产品贸易网络方面,以电子信息产品为例,一方面度中心性指标反映出中国在网络中影响力迅速增强,是电子信息产品全球贸易网络的核心成员国;另一方面在中介中心度与接近中心度2个指标上中国与美国仍存在差距,电子信息产业核心竞争力有待加强,在新一轮产业变革中应投入更多物质与精力用于产业链高端技术的研发与开拓。

As the two largest economies in the world,Sino-US trade pattern and its evolution have a profound impact on the development of global economy.However,the Sino-US trade pattern,evolution,and status of the trade product network have not been fully revealed.Therefore,based on the United Nations Comtrade data,this study used descriptive statistical analysis and social network analysis methods to analyze the trade development process,product structure,and product trade network between China and the United States from 2001 to 2017.The study found that:1)In terms of trade links,the bilateral import and export trade volume between China and the United States had been rising from 2001 to 2017,and the trade links had been growing steadily.2)In terms of export product structures,China's export products to the United States mainly consist of mechanical equipment,textile,and clothing products.The product structure has not been changed significantly;and American export products to China mainly contain mechanical equipment,instruments,transport equipment,plant products,and chemical products.In recent years,the proportion of mechanical and electrical products has declined,and the proportion of transport equipment products has increased.3)In terms of trade networks of major products,taking electronic products as an example,on the one hand,the change of degree centrality index reflects the rapid increase of China's influence in the network.China is the core member of the global trade network in electronic information industry.On the other hand,there is still a gap between China and the United States in terms of betweenness centrality and closeness centrality.The core competitiveness of the Chinese electronic information industry needs to be strengthened.More resources should be devoted to research and development of high technology in the new round of industrial transformation.