美伊紧张关系升级的影响及中国石油企业应对策略建议

The impact of US-Iran tense relations’ evolution and the strategic suggestions for Chinese petroleum enterprises

美国与伊朗的紧张关系持续升级的演进分三个阶段:第一阶段,美国退出伊朗核协议前的密集制裁;第二阶段,美国退出伊核协议,重启油气全面制裁;第三阶段,美国封杀与伊朗反制,中东局势恶化。美伊紧张关系持续升级,致使伊朗不再具备可持续发展的油气投资环境;沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋等美国盟国的安全局势愈发严峻;也门与叙利亚局势趋于复杂,复产形势再度堪忧;霍尔木兹海峡油轮遇袭推动运费和保费上涨,石油航运安全出现隐忧;沙特阿拉伯石油设施遇袭事件增加了国际油价的不确定性;不排除美伊发生军事冲突的可能性。中国石油企业开展中东油气业务需高度重视美伊紧张关系影响,理性定位在伊朗的油气业务;参与叙利亚、也门油气复产需高度关注政治和解进程;预警应对安全风险、保费运费风险和保供风险;跟踪研判中东局势影响,合理选择决策油价参数。

The evolution process of tense relations between the US and Iran includes 3 steps: first, the OFAC frequently sanctioned before the US withdrew from the nuclear deal;second, the US withdrew from the nuclear deal and restarted comprehensive sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas industry;thirdly, the US blocked Iran, Iran countered, and the situation in the Middle East tended to deteriorate. As tensions between the US and Iran continue to rise, Iran no longer has a sustainable oil and gas investment environment. The security situation of US Allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is increasingly severe, the situation in Yemen and Syria is getting more complicated, and the resumption of production is worrying again. Attacks on tankers in the strait of Hormoz have raised freight rates insurance premiums and concerns about the safety of oil shipping. The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities has added to uncertainty about international oil prices and there is possibility of military conflict between the US and Iran happened. Therefore, China’s petroleum enterprises which are operating in the Middle East need to pay close attention to the impact of the US-Iran tensions, rationally position Iran’s oil and gas business, concern about the process of political reconciliation when participation in the resumption of production in Syria and Yemen, deal well with safety risk, insurance and freight risk and supply risk, track and judge the impact of the situation in the Middle East, and reasonably select and decide the oil price parameters.