苏丹与南苏丹政局走势及石油投资对策

Political trends and oil investment countermeasures in Sudan and South Sudan

石油合作曾为中国与苏丹带来重大发展机遇。2011年7月南苏丹独立后,苏丹石油收入锐减,经济状况不断恶化;政治局势短期持续动荡,过渡政府成立可期。南苏丹内乱冲突波及石油工业使经济陷入危机,但希望通过石油生产改善国民经济;然而其内部权力斗争持续,长期政治局势复杂严峻。当前,在苏丹的中国油气企业应调整布局,守住生存底线;在南苏丹的中国企业应利用核心竞争力,提高投资经济效益。在两国的中国企业均应提升当地化程度,重视企业社会责任,降低风险;发挥联动风险预警机制,强化应急措施,确保安全。

Oil cooperation has provided major development opportunities for both China and Sudan. Since the independence of South Sudan in July 2011, Sudan’s oil revenue has decreased sharply and its economic situation has been deteriorating. The situation continues to be volatile for a short time and the transitional government is expected to be established. Under the long and complex power struggle continues, the civil strife in South Sudan spilled over into the oil industry and plunged the economy into crisis, it is hoping to improve the national economy through oil production. However, the internal power struggle continues and the long-term political situation is complicated and severe. At present, China’s oil and gas companies in Sudan should adjust their business distribution and keep their bottom line, use their core competitiveness to improve their efficiency of investment. Oil companies in both countries should improve their localization, value their social responsibility and reduce risks, give full play to the interconnected risk warning mechanism, and intensify emergency measures to ensure their safety.