海南岛异常冷冬环流特征及其在冷冬预测中的应用

Analysis of Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of the Abnormal Cold Winter in Hainan and Its Application in Cold Winter Forecast

在“全年无冬”的海南岛,异常冷冬常给热带果木、橡胶树等农业及旅游业产生不利影响,因此需要对海南岛异常冷冬事件的大气环流特征及其在冷冬预测中的应用进行研究。利用近40年海南岛17个市县气象观测站逐月气温观测资料、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料、NOAA ERSST全球海温格点资料以及Nino3.4指数和AO指数以及国家气候中心提供的74项环流指数,开展了海南岛异常冷冬环流特征分析,并研究了其在冷冬趋势预测中的应用。结果表明:海南岛冬季平均气温存在年际变化特征,近年来海南岛共出现12次冷冬年,冷冬事件频发。海南岛冷冬发生期间,对流层低层冷高压加强,东亚冬季风偏强。ENSO与AO指数可以作为海南岛冷冬预测的参考依据,ENSO冷位相对应AO指数正位相,有利于诱发大气环流异常,促使海南岛出现冷冬事件。另外,利用大气环流指数建立的冬季气温距平回归预报方程能够较好地预测海南岛冬季气温趋势。

Hainan is labeled as“winter without winter cold”.The abnormal cold winter has adverse effect on tropical fruit trees,rubber trees and agricultural production and tourism.By using the monthly mean temperature observation data from Hainan in recent 40 years and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets,NOAA ERSST data,Nino3.4 index and AO index and 74 circulation indexes from National Climate Center,we studied the atmospheric circulation characteristics of the cold winter and their application in trend forecast of cold winter.The results showed that:winter temperature of Hainan had interannual change characteristics.In recent years,the cold winter appeared frequently in 12 years.During the cold winter,the cold high pressure at low level and the East Asian winter monsoon were strengthened.The ENSO and AO index could be used in cold winter forecast,the collective effect of cold phase of ENSO index and positive phase of AO index was beneficial to low temperature over Hainan and causing cold winter.In addition,the regression forecast equation established with the atmospheric circulation indexes could be used in the winter temperature trend forecast in Hainan.