基于云模型的木制品加工企业火灾事故诱因分析

Analysis of the fire accidents induced in the wood products processing businesses based on the cloud model

木制品加工企业火灾事故诱因防控是其安全工作的重点,基于云模型综合确定各危险因素的防控排序,首先构建火灾事故因素模糊分析图,将因素分为企业安全管理、消防设施、火灾引发因素、人员疏散4个一级指标,并进一步细分为24个二级指标;在此基础上,考虑数据的随机性和离散性,利用云模型结合AHP和模糊综合评价法,将权重和评价矩阵定量云化,构造出基于云模型改进的综合评价模型;最后运用该模型对某木制品加工企业火灾事故进行风险分析。结果表明,该方法能较为客观地对危险因素进行排序,不仅适用于火灾事故诱因分析,对企业其他类事故安全评价也有一定参考价值。

The given paper is to make an analysis of the fire accidents induced in the wooden products maufacturing factories based on the cloud model,actually,a comprehensive improved cloud model of the evaluation of the fire accident ranks and analysis of the risk factors in such factories. To solve the problem of insufficient fire hazard investigationa in the wood products processing factories,we have first of all consulted the relevant specific documents and materials,and,then,divided the fire accidents of the wood processing factories into 4 first-grade indicators,such as the safety management,the fire-fighting installations and the needed facilities,the fire-induced factors,and the working people evacuation situations,etc. And,then,the firstgrade indicators can further be subdivided into 24 second-level indicators via the causative analysis method,which help to organize a fuzzy analysis chart of the fire leading factors in such plants. On the above said basis,it has to take into account the randomness and discreteness of the data in combined with the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the cloud model to quantify the weight value and the evaluation matrix so as to build up a comprehensive evaluation model based on the cloud improved evaluation one. And,finally,the powerful open source and community capabilities of the Python language can be adopted so as to verify the improved model by taking a small and medium-sized wooden escalator factory as a case study sample. The results of our study show that the cloud weight value and cloud computation evaluation can only set a nice blend of ambiguity and uncertainty in the judgment of the cause of the plant fire hazard,which may reflect the ambiguity and uncertainty of the plant hazard information acquisition. But,the improved cloud model can help to rank the causes of the fire accidents objectively,which can obtain the proper ranking of the hazard levels of the first-level indicators of the fire accidents. At the same time,in the process of determining the cloud weight,the ranking of the risk levels of the secondary indicators should be determined objectively by the redistribution of the scores. Therefore,the targeted fire accident risk prevention and control measures can be prepared to correct the hidden dangers of the factory fire accidents,which can help to reduce the probability of the fire accidents.