摘要
收集巴伦支海海域近岸1996-2015年海流数据,提取各年流速最大值得到不分方向的年极值流速序列,绘制16个方向的海流流速玫瑰图,选取N至S向9个流向的各年流速最大值得到9个分向的年极值流速序列。采用4种概率模型,即GEV分布,Gumbel分布,Weibull分布和P-III型分布,对抽取的年极值流速序列进行拟合,采用K-S检验和均方根误差法(RMSE)对分布进行拟合优度检验。选取一工程点并计算得到该点处的分方向和不分方向的年极值流速多年一遇重现值。
The data of ocean current are collected in Barents offshore area from 1996 to 2015 and the non-directional annual extreme current speed sequence is obtained by extracting the annual maximum. The ocean current rose diagrams in 16 directions are plotted. Extracting the annual maximum values from N to S to get the annual extreme current speed sequences in 9 directions. Four probabilistic models, namely GEV distribution, Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution and P-III type distribution, are used to fit the extracted annual extreme current speed sequences. Both K-S test and root mean square error method are used for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. The non-directional and directional return values of current speed at a project site which is chosen in advance are estimated.
作者
廖振焜
董胜
王智峰
段成林
LIAO Zhenkun;DONG Sheng;WANG Zhifeng;DUAN Chenglin(College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《海洋湖沼通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期1-8,共8页
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0303401)
国家自然科学基金项目(51779236,51509226,51409226)资助
关键词
巴伦支海
海流
极值模型
统计分析
重现值
Barents Sea
ocean current
extreme model
statistical analysis
return value
