中美贸易政策博弈与中国的占优策略研究

A Study on the Game of Sino-USTrade Policy and China’s DominanceStrategy

以博弈论为理论依据,对中美两国的不同贸易政策所产生的收益进行量化评估,以此为依据建立中美贸易政策博弈模型。通过模型分析可知:在中美贸易政策博弈中,对美国而言,收益最大的情况是美国对中国单方面发起贸易战,但是中国保持全面克制,不采用对抗策略;对中国而言,最大收益的情况是中美之间没有贸易战,但如果在被迫面对美国发起的贸易战时,采用理智的对抗策略才会使收益最大化;守成大国和崛起大国之间的经贸关系总是趋向于紧张的方向发展是此模型的博弈困境。中国如果想走出博弈困境,将战略压力转化为战略机遇,应有自己的顶层设计和底线思维。从短期来看,其占优策略是非对称性的对抗策略。从长期来看,中国应通过知识产权保护和鼓励实体经济发展实现在稳定出口的前提下,转向内需驱动和科技创新的增长模式。

Based on the paradox of globalization,the trend of American First and the superpower game,Trump Administration s trade policy towards China has gradually changed in recent years,which is mainly reflected in two aspects:the establishment of trade hardliners in China and the successively implemented trade protectionism policies.Based on the game theory,this paper quantitatively evaluates the benefits generated by different trade policies between China and the United States.According to the model analysis,in the trade policy game between China and the United States,the most beneficial situation for the United States is that the United States unilaterally initiates a trade war with China,but China maintains overall restraint and does not adopt a confrontational strategy.For China,the most profitable scenario is that there is no trade war between China and the United States.The economic and trade relations between the established powers and the rising powers tend to be tense.In order to get out of the game dilemma and transformthe strategic pressure into strategic opportunity,China should have its own top-level design and bottom-line thinking.In the short term,it can be seen from the game model of Sino-US trade policy that China s best strategy is asymmetric antagonistic strategy.In the long run,China should transfer to a growth model driven by domestic demand and technical innovation by protecting intellectual property rights and encouraging the development of real economy.