大气中NO2和SO2对苏州市居民脑卒中发病及高危因素影响的研究

The impact of atmospheric NO2 and SO2 on the incidence of stroke among residents in Suzhou

目的分析大气气态污染物(NO2、SO2)对脑卒中发病影响效应,并探究其对高危人群和不同季节影响程度。方法收集2008-2017年苏州市居民脑卒中发病资料、大气污染物和气象数据,在控制气象因素、星期几效应和长期趋势的基础上,应用时间序列广义相加模型,分析大气气态污染物(NO2、SO2)对脑卒中发病数、高危人群和不同季节的影响。结果 NO2、SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,女性脑卒中发病数分别增加0.88%(95%CI:0.33%~1.43%)、0.88%(95%CI:0.09%~1.67%);≥65岁年龄组脑卒中发病数分别增加1.15%(95%CI:0.67%~1.62%)、1.13%(95%CI:0.44%~1.81%)。在冷季NO2、SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,人群中脑卒中发病数分别增加1.27%(95%CI:0.69%~1.86%)、1.24%(95%CI:0.43%~2.06%)。结论大气中气态污染物浓度增加会引起脑卒中发病率的增加,女性和年龄≥65岁者为易感人群,寒冷季节为脑卒中发病高危因素。

Objective To discuss the impact of atmospheric gaseous pollutants NO2 and SO2 on the morbidity of stroke among residents in Suzhou, and to analyze its high risk factors. Methods Data of stroke morbidity, air pollutants and meteorological data were collected in Suzhou from 2008 to 2017.Time-series method based on poisson regression generalized additive model(GAM) was used to analyze the effects of atmospheric gaseous pollutants NO2 and SO2 on stroke incidence, high risky population under the control of meteorological factors, weekday effects and long-term trends. Results Our analysis showed that, with every 10 μg/m3 increase of NO2 and SO2, the morbidity of stroke increased by 0.88%(95%CI:0.33%~1.43%) and 0.88%(95%CI:0.09%~1.67%) in women, and by 1.15%(95%CI:0.67%~1.62%) and 1.13%(95%CI:0.44%~1.81%)in residents aged 65 years and above.In cold season, with every 10 μg/m3 increase of NO2 and SO2, the morbidity of stroke increased by 1.27%(95%CI:0.69%~1.86%)and 1.24%(95%CI:0.43%~2.06%). Conclusions The incidence of stroke arises with the increase in concentration of gaseous pollutants.Women and residents aged 65 years and above are susceptible population, and the cold season is a high risk factor for stroke.