东北亚变局下日本保守主义势力的“拥核”论动因及前景分析

A Study of Causes and Prospects of Japanese Conservatism’s ‘Nuclear Theory’ against the Background of the Changing Situations in Northeastern Asia

作为日本基本防卫政策底线之一的“无核三原则”,对日本政局的稳定起了非常重要的作用。但日本保守主义势力一直存在修改无核政策的设想并频频挑战无核底线。新世纪以来,日本保守主义政客及学者多次公开发表“拥核”论,推动日本国内政治右倾。在东北亚安全局势发生重大变化的背景下,日本保守主义势力重新掀起“朝鲜威胁论”、质疑美国的“核保护伞”的可靠性,鼓吹修改“无核三原则”,企图实现国家“拥核”的目标。因受到民意、国际舆论和《核不扩散条约》等方面的掣肘,尽管日本拥有先进的核技术应用及开发能力,但短期内仍无法突破“无核三原则”,也不可能拥有和制造核武器。

The "Three Non-nuclear Principles",one of the basic limits of Japan’ s basic defense policy,have played a very important role in the stability of Japan ’ s political situation.However,the Japanese conservatism always has the idea of modifying the nuclear-free policy and has challenged the nuclear-free bottom line frequently. The new century has witnessed that Japanese conservatist politicians and scholars talked about"owning nuclear weapons"in public,which accelerates the right deviation of Japan’ s politics. Against the background of the major changes in the Northeastern Asia,the conservatism has revived "North Korea threat theory",doubted the reliability of American "Nuclear Umbrella",and advocated the revision of the "three non-nuclear principles",trying to reach to goal of "owning nuclear weapons". The fact that Japan is facing is that although Japan has advanced nuclear technology application and development capabilities,it is still unable to break through the basic national policy of "three non-nuclear principles"in the short term,and it is impossible to own and manufacture nuclear weapons because of the constraints like domestic public opinion,international opinion and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,etc.