产业园区碳排放核算、回归与趋势——以杭州青山湖科技城为实证

Carbon Emission Accounting,Regression and Trend in Industrial Park:Empirical Study From Qingshan Lake High-tech City in Hangzhou

以杭州青山湖高科技产业园内云制造小镇为研究案例,核算并分析了小镇内2015~2018年具有代表性的不同类型企业的碳排放状况,并运用情景分析法对2019~2021年的碳排放进行了预测与探讨。结果表明:杭州青山湖高科技产业园内云制造小镇四类代表性企业碳排放总量增速放缓,且2018年初见下降趋势。电力能源消耗在高新园区的能源消耗贡献中仍是主流。企业年产值是碳排放量的重要驱动因子,两者间存在极强的线性相关关系。多数企业碳排放强度呈下降趋势,部分企业碳排放强度位于行业先进水平。

Taking cloud manufacturing town of Qingshan Lake High-tech Industrial Park in Hangzhou as a case study,carbon emissions in 2015-2018 of different types of enterprises in the town are calculated and analyzed,and so are they predicted and discussed by scenario analysis method for 2019-2021.The results show that the total carbon emission growth rate of four representative enterprises in the cloud-making town of Hangzhou Qingshan Lake High-tech Industrial Park has slowed down,and the decline trend is seen in early 2018.Electricity energy consumption is still the mainstream in the energy consumption contribution of high-tech parks.The annual output value of enterprises is an important driving factor for carbon emissions,and there is a strong linear correlation between the twoelements.The carbon emission intensity of most enterprises is declining,and the carbon emission intensity of some enterprises is at the advanced level of the industry.