发达国家货币政策的分化调整对中国经济的影响与风险防范

The Impact of Opposite Shock from American and European Monetary Policy on China’s Economy and Risk Prevention

当前,发达国家的货币政策出现了分化调整的新动态,处于政策夹缝中的中国需要评估发达国家货币政策的分化调整可能带来的风险并制定应对措施。文章建立了开放经济条件下的DSGE三国模型,研究发达国家货币政策的分化调整对中国经济的影响,并基于此提出风险对冲的一系列对策建议。研究认为:美国紧缩货币政策可能导致中国产出下降,消费萎缩,资本投入下降,短期通胀有可能上升,并降低就业率水平;欧洲宽松货币政策可能导致中国产出上升,消费下降,资本投入上升,通胀和就业率水平可能下滑;中国本国的技术冲击可以适当缓解发达国家货币政策分化调整带来的不利影响。文章提出相应的政策建议是:大力推进供给侧结构性改革,加强技术创新,实施定向调控类的货币政策,通过差异化的策略组合来对冲发达国家货币政策分化调整带来的不确定性。

In this paper,we establish a three-country DSGE model in the open economy,and analyze the joint impact of the tight monetary policy and the loose monetary policy to the third country. The conclusion shows that the Fed rate hike will lead Chinese economy to the situation with output decline,consumption decline,capital investment decline,short-term inflation rate rise,and lower employment rate,while the intensity of QE from the European Central Bank will lead Chinese economy to the situation with output rise,consumption decline,capital investment rise,short-term inflation rate decline,and lower employment rate. The technical shock of China can offset the negative monetary policy shocks from other developed countries. The recommendations are,increasing the domestic demand,promoting the supply side structural reform,reducing the cost of enterprise,encouraging technological innovation,implementing directional-control monetary policy,building differentiation combination strategy for export and investment,and using hedge method to avoid the uncertainty of heterogeneous monetary policy.