中国木家具出口贸易持续期研究——基于生存分析法

Study on the Duration of China’s Wood Furniture Exports——Based on the Survival Analysis

保持出口贸易的稳定发展是实现中国木家具行业可持续发展的基础。文章利用1992?2016年HS六分位贸易数据和生存分析法,对中国典型的出口林产品——木家具的出口贸易持续期进行了实证研究。结果显示,中国木家具出口贸易关系持续期的均值为12年,中值为5年,出口的“门槛效应”为10年。进一步通过建立Cox PH模型、Weibull模型及Exponential模型对影响中国木家具出口持续期的主要因素进行分析,结果得出,出口目的国的市场规模、人均消费能力、经济自由化程度、双边初始贸易额等均对中国木家具出口持续期延展产生正向影响效应;地理距离、单位价值不利于出口贸易持续期延长;木家具出口竞争力估计结果显示会增加贸易中断风险率。此外,目的国是否为内陆国家以及是否签订自由贸易协定的影响并不显著。

Maintaining sustainable export is the basis for sustainable development of China’s wood furniture industry.Based on HS-6 digit trade data during 1992-2016 and survival analysis method,we made an empirical study on China’s wood furniture TRD(Trade Relationship Duration)of export,which was the typical export forest products in China.The statistical analysis showed that:the average export duration of China’s wood furniture is 12 years,the median value is 5 years,and the“threshold effect”of export is 10 years.We used Cox PH model,Weibull model and Exponential model to analyze the main factors and found market size,per capital consumption capacity,economic liberalization degree and bilateral initial trade volume had a positive impact on the extension of China’s wood furniture TRD of export.Distance and unit value were not conducive to the extension of TRD;the estimator of export competitiveness showed that it would increase the risk of trade interruption.In addition,the impact of whether the destination country was a landlocked country and whether a free trade agreement had been signed were not significant.