艺术品拍卖成交价格影响因素研究——基于HPM方法和拍卖电视节目数据的分析

Analysis of the Factors that Influence Hammer Price in Artwork Auction——Based on Hedonic Price Model and Televised Auction Data

中国艺术品拍卖市场恢复发展的几十年里,成交价格高居不下已俨然成为整个市场的代名词。研究选取艺术品投资电视拍卖竞价数据作为研究样本,通过引入HPM(hedonic price method,特征价格法)建立了属性隐性价格与边际意愿支付的函数模型,实证考察了拍卖标的属性特征、委托人属性特征、拍卖人属性特征和买受人属性特征对拍卖成交价格的影响。研究发现:艺术品的自身属性特征不会对成交价格产生显著影响,委托人自信程度、期望价格以及拍卖人的正导向均与成交价格显著正相关;同时,期望价格、男性买受人以及买受人专业程度都有助于促进成交价格和参考价格的匹配,避免价格高估的风险,而期望价格主要受到委托人自信程度和性别的影响。

One after another astonishing hammer price has been announced from China’s artwork auction market over the decades since the market resumed its development. This paper applies Hedonic Price Method to reveal the relationship between artwork attributes and implicit prices on the basis of auction bidding prices obtained from televised auctions. Furthermore,it estimates the influences on hammer prices from some particular aspects,including attributes of auctions,characteristics of clients and auctioneers. The results indicate that the internal attributes of artwork have no significant effects on its final price;and compared with others,the confidence of principals,expected prices and positive directions of auctioneers have significant correlations with final price. Moreover,three key factors,i.e. expected prices,male bidders and specialization degrees of bidders,contribute positively to the consistence between hammer prices and reference prices and minimize the risk of price over-estimation. Finally,there is a dramatic influence on the expected prices from confidence degree and the gender of client.