价格波动下中国马铃薯主产区产业扶贫效果评价

Evaluation on the Effect of Industrial Poverty Alleviation in China’s Main Potato Producing Areas under Price Fluctuations

基于2001-2015年马铃薯全国数据和主产区13个省份的面板数据,测算全国和主产区13省份马铃薯价格波动的农户生产福利效应、消费福利效应和总福利效应,以此评价马铃薯产业扶贫的减贫效果。得到的主要结论有:①主产区各省份农户总福利变化结果与其生产福利变化结果相近,马铃薯生产价格变化引起农户生产福利的增加明显大于马铃薯销售价格变化引起农户消费福利的减小。②主产区各省份农户总福利变动具有差异性,这种差异性主要由农户生产福利的影响因素所决定。马铃薯生产价格是影响农户生产福利的主因素,当马铃薯产业扶持政策引起生产价格提高时,农户总福利将大幅增加,减贫效应显著。③随着马铃薯需求量的逐渐增加,销售价格波动对农户总福利的影响也会逐渐加大,加之近年来生产成本中人工成本的比例不断增加,最终导致通过提高生产价格来增加农户总福利的潜力逐渐减小,因此获得的减贫效应也将逐渐降低。

Based on the panel data in the main production area and the national data of the potato from 2001 to 2015, this paper calculates farmers’ production welfare effect, consumption welfare effect and general welfare effect of potato price fluctuation. It is used to evaluate the poverty reduction effect of potato industry. The research results show that: 1) The impact of potato production price fluctuation on the increase of the farmers’ production welfare is greater the impact of potato sale price fluctuation on the decrease of farmers’ consumption welfare, the trend of farmers’ general welfare is similar to the production welfare. 2) There are differences in farmers’ total welfare among the provinces in the main producing areas, which are mainly determined by the influencing factors of farmers’ production welfare. The potato production price is the main factor that affects farmers’ production welfare. The support policy for potato industry causes the increase of the production price and the total welfare of farmers, the poverty reduction effect is significant. 3) With the increasing demand for potatoes, the impact of price fluctuations on farmers’ total welfare will gradually increase. In addition, the proportion of labor costs in production costs has been increasing in recent years. As a result, the potential to improve the farmers’ total welfare by raising production prices will gradually decrease, and the poverty reduction effect will also gradually decrease.