贸易何以成为威慑手段？

Why Trade Can Become a Deterrent Tool?

近年来,国际社会中"经济武器化"这一现象的出现吸引了政界、学界和商界的广泛关注。尤其自美国总统特朗普上台执政以来,美国以贸易为手段大肆威慑他国,借助经济压力为手段迫使他国屈服,以实现自身政治经济目的。因此,研究和分析贸易为何能够成为威慑手段,以及贸易作为威慑手段在大国博弈中的作用十分必要。贸易能够成为威慑手段的原因体现在三个方面:一是它直接涉及国家行为体的核心利益,二是能够给其他国家行为体带来重大损失,三是产生的压力可能改变其他国家行为体的计划或行为。此外,在大国战略博弈中,贸易手段发挥着对其他威慑手段的替代作用,对传统威慑手段的补偿作用,以及重塑与维护大国战略威慑体系的作用。当前大国威慑工具的局限与利益多元性之间、理念的单一性与安全挑战的多维之间的张力逐渐扩大,传统威慑工具难以应对日趋走向以科技和经济为基础的综合国力较量。因此,将贸易手段纳入威慑工具箱并加以使用已是大国博弈的必然选择。尤其在大国无战争的今天,贸易作为大国往来的主要媒介,其背后的威慑功能将在大国的战略竞争中发挥着更为重要的作用。

In recent years,the phenomenon of"economic weaponization"in the international community has attracted wide attention from the political,academic,and business circles.Especially since US President Trump came to power,the United States has used trade as a way to deter other countries and use economic pressure as a tool to submit other countries to its own political and economic goals.Therefore,it is necessary to study and analyze why trade can become the deterrent tool and the role of trade as a deterrent tool in the game of big powers.The reasons are mainly depended on three reasons.First,it directly connects with the core interests of states;second,it can bring significant losses to other states;and third,the pressure generated may change the behavior or plan of other states.What’s more,in the strategic game among big countries,trade can become a substitute for other deterrent tools and can compensate for traditional deterrence,and it also can reshape and maintain the strategic deterrent system of major powers.Under the current condition of gradually expanding between the limitations of current major powers’deterrent tools and the diversity of interests,and between the singularity of ideas and the multidimensionality of security challenges,it is more and more difficult for traditional deterrent tools to cope with the task that the major powers win the competition of comprehensive power which more and more rely on the development of science,technology,and economy.Therefore,the inclusion of trade means making it play a more important role is an inevitable choice.Especially,there is no war between major powers nowadays.Due to trade as the main medium of great powers,the deterrent function of trade will play a more important role in the strategic competition of major powers.