气象灾害的灾体模型及其初步应用

Meteorological Disaster Volume Model and Its Preliminary Application

基于灾度相关模型,提出了面向气象灾害的四维灾体模型。模型以受灾人数、受灾面积和直接经济损失形成的灾度平面作为损失的基本规模,在灾度平面垂直方向,以死亡失踪人数为要素形成第四维,最终形成四维灾体。将模型初步应用于我国气象灾害损失年景评价分析之中,结果显示,2003、2006和2010年为气象灾害损失明显偏重年景;验证分析表明,灾体模型将死亡失踪人数作为特殊的一维来考虑,凸显了其在整个气象灾害损失评价中的重要地位,另外增加受灾面积指标,使得评价结果更趋完整。

Based on the conceptual model of disaster magnitude,a four-dimensional meteorological disaster volume model is proposed.The disaster plane,which is composed of the numbers of affected people,affected area and direct economic losses,is considered as the basic scale of the disaster loss.The number of deaths and missing people is the fourth dimension,which is in the vertical direction of the disaster plane.Then,a four-dimensional meteorological disaster volume is formed.The disaster volume model has initially been applied to the annual evaluation of meteorological disasters in China,and the annual evaluation results show that meteorological disaster losses are obviously heavier in 2003,2006 and 2010.The verification results show that the disaster volume model considers the number of the dead and missing people as a special dimension,highlighting its weight in the assessment of the whole disaster loss.In addition,the disaster area is added,making the evaluation results more complete.