人工智能对经济计量方法的重要影响

The Important Influence of Artificial Intelligence on Econometric Method

当前的经济学理论,即西方经济学,还不是一门真正的经济学理论,无法解释现实经济的发展和演进,因此,为满足认识现实经济的需要大量使用经济计量方法分析现实经济现象。随着人工智能和机器学习方法引入经济计量研究中,并且随着机器学习算法的进一步改进,会对经济计量分析方法产生革命性变化。究其原因就在于现代经济学理论没有说明经济制度的形成和演进,自然无法说明现实经济发展和变化,更无法指导现实经济和给出有效经济政策,而人工智能在经济计量方面的应用,将弥补经济学理论在解释现实经济方面的缺失,为现实经济给出尽可能接近现实运行的说明,从而给出有效的经济社会政策。因此,人工智能对经济计量方法的影响是革命性的,但任重而道远。

The current economic theory, or the Western economics, is not a real economic theory as it cannot explain the development and evolution of the real economy. In order to understand the real economy, there is the need to adopt econometric methods frequently to analyze the realization of economic phenomenon. With the introduction of artificial intelligence(AI) and machine learning into econometric research, and with the further improvement of machine learning algorithm, the econometric analysis method will experience a revolutionary change. The reason is that the modern economic theory does not reveal the formation and evolution of the economic system, so naturally it cannot explain the real economic development and change, not to mention guiding the real economy or contributing effective economic policies. The application of AI in econometrics will remedy the deficiency of the economic theories in explaining the real economy by helping to give better interpretations that are as close as possible to how the economy operates, so as to provide effective economic and social policies. Hence, the influence of AI on econometric methods is revolutionary, but there is still a long way to go.