中国的生育率低在何处?

China’s Low Fertility Trends: An Analysis Using Multiple Sources of Data

利用2000年以来的人口普查、人口抽样调查和2017年全国生育调查数据,通过比较分析考察了中国低生育率的变化进程及特征。中国的低生育率趋势表现为波浪式的进程,或多或少反映的是一种人口再生产的周期性规律波动。利用多种数据和方法的估计表明,20世纪90年代的生育率要明显低于当时国家统计局公布的出生人数中的生育率,而2000年以来的生育率与国家统计局公布的出生人数中的生育率接近。人口普查和人口抽样调查得到的"极低"生育率既与一孩生育率低有关,更是二孩及多孩生育率低的结果。不过,人口抽样调查和2017年生育调查数据在揭示近年来女性初婚初育巨变上存在高度一致性。这种趋势表明中国正在进入一场婚姻革命,也预示着中国存在陷入极低生育率的巨大风险。

Using multiple sources of data from population censuses and sample surveys, fertility survey and household registration plus direct and indirect demographic methods, this paper examines China’s recent fertility trends, suggesting that China’s low fertility trends over the past two decades are largely driven by population momentum and fertility policy adjustments. The fertility levels and trends derived from 2017 fertility survey and 2017 household registration statistics are highly consistent, while the gaps are increasing between these results and those from the censuses and sample surveys. The dramatic changes in the patterns of first marriage and first birth occurring in the last decade suggest that China is facing huge risk of falling into ultra-low levels of fertility in the very near future. Formulating and implementing policies strongly promoting and supporting marriage and fertility has become the issues that brook no delay.