中美能源形势对比及合作建议

Comparative Analysis of Sino-US Energy Situation and Suggestions for Cooperation

中美两国是世界最大的能源消费国,但能源供需形势和贸易形势却各有不同。综观全球能源市场,西方主要发达国家能源消费趋于稳定甚至下降,能源消费中心继续“东扩”,中国、印度等新兴经济体成为全球能源消费的主要增长动力。中国的工业化进程驱动能源消费快速增长,且能源消费结构以煤为主;石油供应严重短缺,同时天然气需求强劲,供需缺口也在逐年扩大,油气资源供应保障程度不容乐观。反观美国,其能源消费已基本稳定,且能源消费结构清洁化特征明显,煤炭呈供应过剩局面;页岩气革命助力美国成为油气生产大国,石油进口量大幅下降,距离“石油独立”目标越来越近,而“天然气独立”目标已实现。中美能源结构互补性强,美国能源产品具备价格优势,但中美能源贸易量受贸易争端影响骤然下降。未来中长期内,中美两国在国际能源市场中的地位明显不同,但中国作为能源进口大国,美国作为能源出口大国,两国能源贸易的互补性大于竞争性。应当破除能源产品关税壁垒,加强与美国的能源合作,这既有利于缓解美国对华贸易逆差,也有利于提高中国能源供给安全水平。

China and the United States are the world′s largest energy consumers,but their energy supply and demand situations and trade situations are different.Looking at the global energy market,the energy consumption of major western developed countries is tending towards stability or even falling,energy consumption centers are expanding eastward,and emerging economies such as China and India have become the main growth drivers for global energy consumption.China′s industrialization process has driven the rapid growth in energy consumption,and the energy consumption structure is dominated by coal.There is a serious shortage of oil supply,while the natural gas demand is strong and the supply and demand gap is expanding year by year.Its oil and gas supply guarantee level is not optimistic.In contrast,the energy consumption of the United States has been basically stable,the energy consumption structure is characterized by cleanliness,and there is an oversupply of coal.The shale revolution has helped the United States become a major oil and gas producer,the oil imports have fallen sharply,the United States is getting closer to the goal of oil independence,and the goal of natural gas independence has been achieved.China and the United States have strong energy complementarity,and the energy products of the US have price advantages.However,the volume of energy trade between the two countries has dropped sharply due to the impact of trade disputes.In the medium and long term,the position of China in the international energy market is obviously different from that of the United States,but complementary relations play a more important part than competitive relations in the energy trade between China,a major energy importer,and the United States,a major energy exporter.China should break down the tariff barriers on energy products and strengthen the energy cooperation with the United States,which will not only help to alleviate the US trade deficit with China,but also help to improve the security level of China′s energy supply.