人民币汇率波动对我国农产品进出口贸易的影响分析

Impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s agricultural products import and export trade

【目的】在基于乡村振兴战略和人民币汇率贬值波动的背景下,研究人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国农产品进出口的影响,为我国农产品进出口贸易发展提供参考。【方法】选取2014年1月—2019年1月人民币汇率和我国农产品进出口的月度数据,通过构建GARCH(1,1)模型对人民币实际有效汇率波动进行测度,进而基于两国非完全替代模型构建农产品出口和进口方程,实证分析人民币汇率波动对我国农产品进出口的影响。【结果】人民币汇率波动对我国农产品出口和进口均存在显著正向影响,但出口弹性大于进口弹性,进口存在刚性特征;汇率波动短期对农产品出口和进口均有负向冲击,但对出口的冲击小于进口;本国和贸易国的收入和外商投资等因素也是影响农产品进出口贸易的重要因素。【建议】我国应稳定汇率,在为农产品贸易提供更稳定外部环境的基础上,提升农产品贸易企业的抗风险能力,并进一步优化贸易结构,发挥对农产品贸易有利因素的协同效应,实现我国农产品贸易的长足优良发展,为实现乡村振兴寻找正确的发展路径。

【Objective】Based on the rural revitalization strategy and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate depreciation,this paper studied the impact of the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the import and export of China’s agricultural products to provide reference for the import and export of agricultural products in China.【Method】The monthly data on RMB exchange rate and import and export of agricultural products from January,2014 to January,2019 were selected.The GARCH(1,1)model was used to measure the real effective exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB,and then based on the non-complete replacement model of the two countries,the equation of export and import of agricultural products were constructed.The equation provided an empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s agricultural products import and export.【Result】The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate had a significant positive impact on China’s agricultural product export and import,but the export elasticity was greater than the import elasticity,and the import had the rigid characteristics.The exchange rate fluctuation had a negative impact on the export and import of agricultural products in the short term,but the impact on export was less than import.The income of domestic and trading countries and foreign investment were also important factors affecting the import and export trade of agricultural products.【Suggestion】China should stabilize the exchange rate and provide a more stable external environment for agricultural trade,further enhance the anti-risk ability of agricultural trade enterprises,and further optimize the trade structure,and exert the synergistic effects of influence of favorable factors,realize the substantial development of domestic agricultural products trade and searching for the correct path for rural revitalization.