基于Beta样条曲线与GM模型组合的月度负荷预测

Monthly Load Forecasting on Beta-spline Curve and GM Model

本文基于月度负荷具有增长性和季节波动性的二重趋势特征,提出了一种新的月度负荷预测方法。该方法通过运用GM模型对纵向历史数据预测,对于横向历史数据采用Beta样条曲线预测,共同构建组合预测模型,最后给出这种预测方法的建模步骤。通过实例和对比分析,证明新的方法是可行和有效的。

This paper proposes a new monthly load forecasting method based on the dual trend characteristics of monthly load growth and seasonal volatility.The method uses the GM model to predict the longitudinal historical data,and uses the Beta spline curve prediction for the horizontal historical data to jointly construct the combined prediction model,Finally the modeling steps of the prediction method are given.Through examples and comparative analysis,it is proved that the new method is feasible and effective.