基于数值模拟的深圳民治片区暴雨内涝风险评估

Risk assessment of rainstorm waterlogging based on numerical simulation in Shenzhen Minzhi District

以深圳市民治片区为研究对象,建立了基于SWMM模型和二维水动力学模型的城市雨洪水文水动力耦合模型,并采用历史调研资料对所构建的城市雨洪模型进行验证,结果表明该模型具有良好的精度和可靠性。利用所构建的城市雨洪模型模拟分析民治片区内涝情况,根据致灾因子和受灾体情况建立民治片区内涝风险评估指标体系,利用ArcGIS技术和层次分析法对民治片区内涝灾害进行风险评价,风险评价结果表明城市内涝灾害风险主要受淹没情况影响,民治片区高风险区主要集中在民强社区、民治社区、新牛社区内民治河沿河下游区域,低风险区主要分布在远离民治河的民乐社区、民泰社区和大岭社区。

Based on SWMM model and two-dimensional hydrodynamic model,a hydrodynamic coupling model for urban rainwater and flood was established in Shenzhen Minzhi District.The model was validated using historical data.The results showed that the model had good accuracy and reliability.The urban rainflood model was used to simulate and analyze the waterlogging situation in the Minzhi District.According to hazard factors and the affected area,risk assessment index system was established in the study area.ArcGIS technology and analytic hierarchy process method was used to evaluate the risk of waterlogging disaster in Minzhi District.The result of waterlogging risk assessment showed that the risk of waterlogging disasters in the cities was mainly affected by inundation.The high risk region were mainly located in downstream area of Minzhi River inside Minqiang Community,Minzhi Community and Xinniu Community,while the low risk area were mainly distributed in Minle Community,Mintai Community and Daling Community away from Minzhi River.