基于预报调度的河口村水库汛限水位动态控制域研究

Research on Dynamic Control Domain of Flood Control Level of Hekoucun Reservoir Based on Forecasting Operation

开展实时预报调度是实现汛限水位动态控制的重要手段之一,构建了以削峰率最大为目标的水库实时防洪调度模型,提出了防洪库容分期动态使用的方法,选取河口村水库历史洪水及百年一遇洪水过程,通过实时预报调度仿真,在保证足够安全裕度的条件下,确定了河口村水库汛限水位动态控制值的上限为250m,在不增加防洪风险的前提下,多场次洪水平均可增加的洪水资源利用量为4070×104 m3。

Real-time forecast and dispatching is one of the important means to realize dynamic control of flood limit water level.In this paper,a reservoir real-time flood control operation model with maximum peak clipping rate is constructed.The flood control capacity of stage dynamic method is put forward.Selection of historical flood and one hundredyear flood process in Hekoucun reservoir,the scheduling simulation is carried out through real-time forecast.Under the condition of ensuring enough safety margin,the dynamic control value of flood limit level in Hekoucun reservoir is determined up to 250 m.On the premise of not increasing the risk of flood control,the average amount of flood resources that can be increased by multiple floods is 40.7 million cubic meters.