基于GM(1,1)模型残差修正的经济预测

Economic Prediction Based on Residual Correction of GM(1,1) Model

为提高我国国内生产总值GDP总量预测精度,更好地为宏观经济政策提供参考信息,在传统灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的基础上,进行残差修正,建立GM(1,1)残差改进模型。经过实证分析,结果表明:GM(1,1)残差改进模型具有较好的可行性与精确性。

In order to improve the precision of gross domestic product(GDP) prediction and to provide a better reference for macroeconomic policy, the residual model is established on the basis of the traditional grey forecasting model. The availability and accuracy of the model are verified by an example.