名义负利率的发展现状与效果研判

The Development and Effect of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

全球金融危机后,多家央行实施名义负利率,且有向其他国家蔓延的可能。这一举措在短期内对本国或地区宏观经济具有提振作用,但并没有改变宏观经济长期中的增长态势。文章分析了目前全球名义负利率发展情况、未来发展趋势及我国应对选择。指出我国货币政策需要坚持以我为主的思路,长期重在改革完善货币政策调控机制,短期重点瞄准经济下行压力强化逆周期调控,名义负利率不应该作为货币政策的选择方向。

After the global financial crisis,some central banks introduced negative nominal interest rates,which have the possibility to spread to other countries.Though such a measure may boost the economy in the short term,it cannot change the growth trend in the long run.The article analyzes the current development and the future trend of negative nominal interest rates,and discusses the response options for China.China's monetary policy should be based on Chinese reality,focusing on reforming and improving the monetary policy regulation mechanism in the long term and strengthening the counter-cyclical regulation in the short term under the downward economic pressure.Negative nominal interest rate should not be a choice for China’s monetary policy.