基于德尔菲法上海市生活饮用水集中式供水水质风险评估指标体系构建

Establishment of risk assessment index system for quality of drinking water from centralized water supply in Shanghai city: a Delphi study

目的构建上海市生活饮用水集中式供水水质风险评估指标体系,为今后开展集中式供水水质风险管理提供理论依据和指导工具。方法结合文献和工作经验初步确定上海市生活饮用水集中式供水水质风险指标体系,采用德尔菲咨询法抽取81名从事相关领域的从业人员进行2轮咨询,对指标进行评分和筛选,并采用模糊层次分析法确定指标的权重。结果 2轮咨询从业人员的积极系数均为100%;从业人员对指标的判断系数为0.456,熟悉程度为0.881,权威系数为0.669;第1轮和第2轮咨询从业人员的协调系数分别为0.186和0.429(均P <0.05);通过2轮咨询,最终确定了由6个一级指标、41个二级指标构建的上海市生活饮用水集中式供水水质风险评估指标体系。结论建立的上海市生活饮用水集中式供水水质风险评估指标体系符合上海市生活饮用水集中式供水的基本状况。

Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for evaluating the quality of drinking water from centralized water supplies in Shanghai city and to provide a basis for risk management of centralized drinking water supplies.Methods A set of indexes for risk assessment of centralized drinking water supplies was primarily established based on literature study and pervious work experience. Then a two-round Delphi consultation was carried out among 81 professionals to screen and to determine the weight of the 58 indexes using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Results For the two-round consultation, the positive coefficients for the professionals are 100% and the professionals′ determination factor, degree of familiarity, and authority coefficient are 0.456, 0.881, 0.669, respectively. The coordination coefficient for all the items is 0.186 and 0.429 at the first and the second round consultation and the two coefficients are of statistical significance(both P < 0.05).Finally,a comprehensive index system was established with 6 primary indexes and 41 secondary indexes. Conclusion The water quality risk assessment index system established in this study is in line with the basic situation of centralized drinking water supplies in Shanghai city.