省际视角下的货币政策区域效应研究

Research on the Regional Effect of Monetary Policy from the Interprovincial Perspective

基于SVAR模型,利用2005-2018年的省际季度经济数据,对我国货币政策的区域效应进行分析,结果表明:(1)我国货币政策效应存在明显的省际差异;(2)传统的依据地理特征进行货币政策区域划分的方式并不能够很好地反映货币政策区域效应差异,基于系统聚类分析法的区域划分与传统的三分法、五分法和八分法有很大差别;(3)随着经济发展水平的不断提高,我国货币政策区域效应逐渐发生变化,东部地区政策反应水平开始逐渐减弱;(4)利率渠道和信贷渠道是导致我国货币政策区域差异的主要影响因素,汇率渠道对货币政策区域效应影响并不显著。本文建议:有针对性地采取结构性和区域性的货币政策,同时加强生产要素省际流动,减弱货币政策区域差异。

Based on the SVAR model and using the inter-provincial quarterly economic data from 2005 to 2018, the regional effects of China’s monetary policy are analyzed. The results show that:(1) there are obvious inter-provincial differences in the effects of China’s monetary policy;(2) the traditional regional division of monetary policy based on geographical characteristics can not reflect goods very well. The regional effects of monetary policy are different, and the regional division based on cluster analysis is quite different from the traditional three-point, five-point and eight-point methods;(3)with the continuous improvement of economic development level, the regional effects of monetary policy in China are gradually changing, and the level of policy response in the eastern region is gradually weakening;(4) interest rates channels and credit channels are the main factors leading to regional differences in monetary policy in China. Exchange rate channels have no significant impact on regional effects of monetary policy. This paper suggests that we should adopt structural and regional monetary policies, strengthen the inter-provincial flow of factors of production, and reduce the regional differences in monetary policy.