深圳工业二氧化碳直接排放总量和结构的演化研究

Evolution of Total and Structure of Direct Emissions of Industrial Carbon Dioxide in Shenzhen

城市工业直接排放是城市节能减排的重点与难点,影响城市未来减排的潜力和发展空间。本文以后工业化城市深圳为研究对象,分析了2008年至2017年间其工业二氧化碳直接排放的总量、行业结构、能源结构和行业排放产业差距等方面。研究结果表明,首先,深圳工业直接排放的峰值在2008年或以前年份就已达到,这将为城市总排放尽快达峰和较低排放水平达峰提供重要的基础。其次,深圳工业直接排放的行业结构发生显著变化,制造业直接排放显著下降,行业差距缩小,未来直接排放的减排空间不大,深圳未来应重点加强终端能源消耗的管控和节电管理,控制间接排放的增长。最后,深圳直接排放的能源结构已基本实现向清洁能源转型。

Direct carbon dioxide emission of urban industry is the key and difficult point of urban energy conservation and emission reduction,and it affects the potential and development space of future urban emis-sion reduction.This study adopts post-industrial city Shenzhen as the research object,and analyzes the to-tal amount,industrial structure,energy structure of industrial carbon dioxide direct emissions and indus-trial emission gap from 2008 to 2017.The results show that,first of all,Shenzhen’s direct industrial emis-sions are rapidly reduced to a stable level.The peak of direct emissions has been reached in 2008 or in previ-ous years,which will provide an important basis for the peak of total urban emissions and lower emission lev-els are reached.Secondly,the industrial structure of Shenzhen’s industrial direct emissions`has undergone significant changes.The direct emissions of the manufacturing industry have dropped significantly.The e-mission gap of this industry has narrowed and the space is not large.Shenzhen shuould focus on strengthening the control and energy-saving management of terminal energy consumption and decreasing the indicrect emis-sions of electricity in the future.Industrial structure is one of the important determinants of lower direct emissions in Shenzhen.Finally,the energy structure of industrial direct emission has basically achieved a transition to clean energy in Shenzhen.The proportion of clean energy such as natural gas and electricity is rapidly increasing in recent years.