“海上丝绸之路”建设中的产业人才作用机理分析与实证预测——以珠海市为例

Analysis and Empirical Prediction on the Action and Mechanism of Industrial Talents in the Construction of "Marine Silk Road"——Taking Zhuhai as an Example

随着"海上丝绸之路"的推进,人才越来越成为各沿线地区争夺的资源。本文通过Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型,分析了交通运输业和商务服务业的增加值与人员数量的长短期关系。研究表明:国民生产总值与产业增加值、产业人员数量都存在正相关的长期均衡关系。人员数量的增长对产业发展起到了促进作用。交通运输业增加值每提高1%,产业人员数量就会提高0.79%;商务服务业增加值每提高1%,产业人员数量就会提高4.65%。通过线性回归模型法对未来10年内两种产业的人员数量进行了预测,并针对人员数量缺口问题提出了产业人才发展策略。

With the promotion of the strategy of "Maritime Silk Road", talents are becoming more and more the resources contested by all regions along the Silk Road. Through Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model, this paper analyses the long-term and short-term relationship between the added value of transportation and business services and the number of personnel. The results show that there is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between GNP and industrial added value and the number of human resources. The growth of the number of personnel has played a role in promoting industrial development. For ev-ery 1% increase in the added value of transportation industry, the number of industrial personnel will increase by 0.79%;for every 1% increase in the added value of business services industry, the number of industrial per-sonnel will increase by 4.65%. Through linear regression model, the human resource quantity of the two indus-tries in the next 10 years is forecasted, and the development strategy of industrial talents is put forward in view of the shortage of personnel.